2019年第三季度饲料生产监测情况

据农业农村部对全国工业饲料统计监测,第三季度饲料生产形势总体平稳。受非洲猪瘟疫情影响,饲料总产量同比下降。其中,猪饲料大幅下降,禽饲料、反刍饲料快速增长、水产饲料略降,其他饲料较大增长。

      一、  饲料总产量下降,产品结构持续调整

       统计监测数据显示,第三季度饲料总产量同比下降9.5%。其中,配合饲料同比下降9.0%,浓缩饲料同比下降15.1%,添加剂预混合饲料下降18.7%。从前三季度配合、浓缩、预混合饲料的降幅看,养殖业结构调整明显,生猪去产能程度较大,呈现不断加深态势。见表1,图1 

1 饲料生产情况

项目

总产量

配合饲料

浓缩饲料

添加剂预混合

饲料

第一季度同比(%

-1.5

-0.2

-15.9

-15.6

第二季度同比(%

-0.3

0.2

-6.4

-6.4

第三季度同比(%

-9.5

-9.0

-15.1

-18.7

 

1 20181月以来饲料产量变化情况

二、不同品种饲料有涨有跌

       猪饲料。20188月起,受非洲猪瘟疫情影响,能繁母猪、生猪存栏量持续下滑。第三季度非洲猪瘟疫情趋稳,随着疫情防控常态化,部分企业调整留种比例,增加预留后备种猪,加大仔猪投放力度。但受前期生猪产能大幅下降影响,猪饲料同比全线下降,第三季度,猪饲料总产量下降40.8%,其中,仔猪饲料、母猪饲料同比分别下降53.2%35.7%

      蛋禽饲料。20178月以来,蛋禽盈利较好,第三季度鸡蛋进入传统上行周期,商品代在产蛋鸡存栏逐渐回升,加上近年大规模蛋禽养殖场陆续投产,蛋禽总存栏逐步增加,饲料保持稳中趋增态势。蛋禽饲料从20184月至今连续17个月同比增长(其中2月春节提前备货下降1.8%)。第三季度蛋禽饲料同比增长9.7%,蛋鸡、蛋鸭饲料同比分别增长3.9%21.2%

      肉禽饲料。非洲猪瘟疫情导致生猪产能下降,猪肉消费缺口预期和猪肉价格持续上行,禽肉的替代性增长、产品价格上涨动力强劲,产能持续增加,肉禽饲料需求增强。肉禽饲料从20186月至今连续16个月同比增长。第三季度肉禽饲料同比增长17.4%,其中,肉鸡、肉鸭饲料同比分别增长13.7%21.9%

      水产饲料。受近年环保,和今年厄尔尼诺现象影响,华东、南方主要养殖地区降水影响投苗,叠加上半年淡水鱼价格低迷,水产饲料需求增幅低于预期。第三季度水产饲料同比下降2.9%,其中,淡水鱼饲料同比下降3.3%、海水饲料同比增长3.2%

      反刍饲料。奶牛存栏保持稳定,肉牛、肉羊补栏增加,反刍饲料消费增长。第三季度反刍饲料同比增长10.0%。其中,奶牛饲料同比下降0.1%,肉牛、肉羊同比分别增长25.0%12.2%。见表2、表3

不同品种饲料生产情况

项目

猪饲料

蛋禽饲料

肉禽饲料

水产饲料

反刍饲料

其他饲料

第一季度同比(%

-12.6

9.7

9.8

7.5

1.7

-0.9

第二季度同比(%

-16.3

8.6

13.3

5.5

5.6

45.0

第三季度同比(%

-40.8

9.7

17.4

-2.9

10.0

50.3

3 各细化品种饲料生产情况 

项目

仔猪料

母猪料

蛋鸡料

蛋鸭料

肉鸡料

肉鸭料

淡水料

海水料

第一季度同比(%

-22.8

-25.0

2.5

28.5

9.0

11.4

6.5

16.1

第二季度同比(%

-28.4

-25.5

0.5

27.5

9.7

17.6

5.9

1.2

第三季度同比(%

-53.2

-35.7

3.9

21.2

13.7

21.9

-3.3

3.2

 三、各区域发展速度差异明显

      各省饲料总产量情况。第三季度11(区、市)饲料总产量同比增长,其中,甘肃、云南、新疆、宁夏同比增幅较高,分别增长30.6%17.7%15.7%13.5%19省区市同比下降,其中江西、青海、广西降幅较大,依次分别下降-33.8%-33.4%-30.3%,第三季度饲料总产量同比下降,见图2

 

2 2019年第三季度30省(区)饲料总产量同比

猪饲料变化情况。第三季度4(区、市)猪饲料产量同比增长,其中,新疆、云南同比增幅较高,分别增长59.6%26.8%26省区市猪饲料同比下降,其中青海、广西、江西等省猪饲料降幅超过60%;海南、广东、湖南、江苏等省降幅超过50%,见图3

 

3 2019年第三季度30省(区)猪饲料产量同比

第三季度华东和华中地区大幅下降。西北地区由于地缘优势和近年大企业产能布局增加,猪饲料产量同比增长10.4%。华南、华中、华东猪饲料下降较大,分别下降63.0%45.2%40.4%;华北、西南、东北分别下降25.1%23.0%19.3%。从单个地区看,青海、广西、江西等省猪饲料降幅超过60%;海南、广东、湖南、江苏等省降幅超过50%,见图4

四、饲料原料价格以降为主

      第三季度主要饲料原料和饲料添加剂产品中,玉米、棉粕、磷酸氢钙、赖氨酸(70%)同比增长,其他饲料原料及饲料添加剂价格同比皆降。玉米拍卖底价支撑市场价格,以及运费上涨成本增加,推动玉米价格上涨,第三季度玉米均价2.06/公斤,同比增长5.5%。非洲猪瘟疫情影响下国内豆粕需求量下滑,第三季度豆粕价格3.04/公斤,同比下降7.0%。在豆粕比价效应下,菜粕同比下降2.3%;棉籽供应不足导致棉粕价格同比增长0.9%。港口鱼粉库存高企和水产饲料需求不旺,进口鱼粉价格同比下降4.1%。国内氨基酸供应总体充足,赖氨酸、蛋氨酸均价偏弱运行,见表4-5,图5

4 2019年第三季度主要饲料原料采购均价

项目

玉米

豆粕

棉粕

菜粕

麦麸

进口鱼粉

第一季度同比(%

0.3

-5.9

-0.1

-1.5

-9.7

-12.3

第二季度同比(%

2.0

-10.0

-3.6

-4.3

-15.2

-5.0

第三季度同比(%

5.5

-7.0

0.9

-2.3

-10.7

-4.1

5 2019年第三季度主要饲料添加剂采购均价

项目

磷酸氢钙

赖氨酸(98.5%

赖氨酸(70%

蛋氨酸(固体)

蛋氨酸(液体)

第一季度同比(%

0.2

-11.1

-2.8

-8.1

-6.5

第二季度同比(%

1.4

-10.2

-0.4

-6.4

-3.1

第三季度同比(%

1.6

-7.6

0.9

-4.5

-2.0

 

5 2019年第三季度主要饲料原料和饲料添加剂采购价格情况

五、饲料产品价格涨跌互现

      第三季度主要饲料产品价格涨跌互现,配合饲料、浓缩饲料价格有涨有跌、添加剂预混合饲料价格以涨为主。其中,猪、蛋禽、肉禽配合饲料同比分别增长1.6%3.2%1.8%;水产配合饲料同比下降1.9%;猪、肉禽浓缩饲料同比分别下降1.5%0.4%;蛋禽浓缩饲料同比增长2.2%;猪、蛋禽添加剂预混合饲料同比分别增长4.0%4.2%;肉禽添加剂预混合饲料同比持平,见表6-7、图6

6 2019年第三季度配合饲料全国平均价格 

项目

配合饲料

育肥猪

蛋禽

肉禽

鲤鱼成鱼

第一季度同比(%

-0.5

3.8

1.6

-3.7

第二季度同比(%

-0.8

2.1

0.3

-3.1

第三季度同比(%

1.6

3.2

1.8

-1.9

7 2019年第三季度度浓缩饲料和添加剂预混合饲料全国平均价格

项目

浓缩饲料

添加剂预混合饲料

育肥猪

蛋禽

肉禽

4%大猪

5%蛋鸡高峰

5%肉大鸡

第一季度同比(%

-1.7

1.8

-0.1

-0.4

5.5

1.4

第二季度同比(%

-2.8

-0.3

-1.2

2.3

4.3

0.9

第三季度同比(%

-1.5

2.2

-0.4

4.0

4.2

0.0

 

6 2019年第三季度主要饲料产品价格情况

5人评论了“2019年第三季度饲料生产监测情况”

  1. I precisely wished to appreciate you again. I do not know what I could possibly have worked on without these creative concepts revealed by you relating to this area. It was actually a very daunting situation for me personally, but noticing the specialized strategy you processed that forced me to leap for delight. I am just grateful for this assistance as well as hope you realize what a powerful job you are always carrying out teaching the mediocre ones all through your blog. I am sure you’ve never encountered all of us.

  2. I definitely wanted to compose a brief word in order to appreciate you for those splendid facts you are writing on this website. My long internet investigation has now been honored with useful content to share with my friends and family. I ‘d admit that we website visitors actually are definitely fortunate to exist in a fabulous place with so many lovely individuals with very beneficial concepts. I feel quite fortunate to have encountered your entire webpages and look forward to many more exciting minutes reading here. Thanks a lot once more for everything.

  3. My wife and i felt now thrilled when Louis could do his analysis because of the ideas he discovered using your web page. It is now and again perplexing just to choose to be offering guides which often the rest have been trying to sell. And we do know we have the writer to give thanks to because of that. The specific illustrations you made, the easy website navigation, the friendships you will help to engender – it is mostly great, and it is facilitating our son in addition to our family consider that that concept is pleasurable, which is seriously vital. Thanks for the whole thing!

  4. I needed to compose you one little note to thank you again for all the remarkable principles you’ve shown above. It is simply shockingly open-handed of people like you to allow freely all a number of us would’ve sold for an e book to end up making some dough for their own end, primarily now that you might well have done it if you ever desired. The smart ideas as well acted to become fantastic way to fully grasp the rest have the same passion the same as my very own to understand a great deal more when it comes to this matter. I am sure there are a lot more enjoyable opportunities ahead for individuals who check out your website.

  5. I would like to express some appreciation to you for rescuing me from this type of challenge. Because of researching throughout the the web and finding ways that were not productive, I figured my entire life was over. Being alive without the presence of solutions to the issues you’ve fixed by way of this report is a critical case, as well as those that might have in a negative way affected my entire career if I hadn’t encountered your site. Your primary talents and kindness in controlling a lot of things was priceless. I’m not sure what I would have done if I had not discovered such a step like this. It’s possible to at this time look ahead to my future. Thanks very much for your specialized and effective guide. I won’t think twice to recommend the blog to any person who needs support about this situation.

发表评论

邮箱地址不会被公开。 必填项已用*标注