2019年第三季度饲料生产监测情况

据农业农村部对全国工业饲料统计监测,第三季度饲料生产形势总体平稳。受非洲猪瘟疫情影响,饲料总产量同比下降。其中,猪饲料大幅下降,禽饲料、反刍饲料快速增长、水产饲料略降,其他饲料较大增长。

      一、  饲料总产量下降,产品结构持续调整

       统计监测数据显示,第三季度饲料总产量同比下降9.5%。其中,配合饲料同比下降9.0%,浓缩饲料同比下降15.1%,添加剂预混合饲料下降18.7%。从前三季度配合、浓缩、预混合饲料的降幅看,养殖业结构调整明显,生猪去产能程度较大,呈现不断加深态势。见表1,图1 

1 饲料生产情况

项目

总产量

配合饲料

浓缩饲料

添加剂预混合

饲料

第一季度同比(%

-1.5

-0.2

-15.9

-15.6

第二季度同比(%

-0.3

0.2

-6.4

-6.4

第三季度同比(%

-9.5

-9.0

-15.1

-18.7

 

1 20181月以来饲料产量变化情况

二、不同品种饲料有涨有跌

       猪饲料。20188月起,受非洲猪瘟疫情影响,能繁母猪、生猪存栏量持续下滑。第三季度非洲猪瘟疫情趋稳,随着疫情防控常态化,部分企业调整留种比例,增加预留后备种猪,加大仔猪投放力度。但受前期生猪产能大幅下降影响,猪饲料同比全线下降,第三季度,猪饲料总产量下降40.8%,其中,仔猪饲料、母猪饲料同比分别下降53.2%35.7%

      蛋禽饲料。20178月以来,蛋禽盈利较好,第三季度鸡蛋进入传统上行周期,商品代在产蛋鸡存栏逐渐回升,加上近年大规模蛋禽养殖场陆续投产,蛋禽总存栏逐步增加,饲料保持稳中趋增态势。蛋禽饲料从20184月至今连续17个月同比增长(其中2月春节提前备货下降1.8%)。第三季度蛋禽饲料同比增长9.7%,蛋鸡、蛋鸭饲料同比分别增长3.9%21.2%

      肉禽饲料。非洲猪瘟疫情导致生猪产能下降,猪肉消费缺口预期和猪肉价格持续上行,禽肉的替代性增长、产品价格上涨动力强劲,产能持续增加,肉禽饲料需求增强。肉禽饲料从20186月至今连续16个月同比增长。第三季度肉禽饲料同比增长17.4%,其中,肉鸡、肉鸭饲料同比分别增长13.7%21.9%

      水产饲料。受近年环保,和今年厄尔尼诺现象影响,华东、南方主要养殖地区降水影响投苗,叠加上半年淡水鱼价格低迷,水产饲料需求增幅低于预期。第三季度水产饲料同比下降2.9%,其中,淡水鱼饲料同比下降3.3%、海水饲料同比增长3.2%

      反刍饲料。奶牛存栏保持稳定,肉牛、肉羊补栏增加,反刍饲料消费增长。第三季度反刍饲料同比增长10.0%。其中,奶牛饲料同比下降0.1%,肉牛、肉羊同比分别增长25.0%12.2%。见表2、表3

不同品种饲料生产情况

项目

猪饲料

蛋禽饲料

肉禽饲料

水产饲料

反刍饲料

其他饲料

第一季度同比(%

-12.6

9.7

9.8

7.5

1.7

-0.9

第二季度同比(%

-16.3

8.6

13.3

5.5

5.6

45.0

第三季度同比(%

-40.8

9.7

17.4

-2.9

10.0

50.3

3 各细化品种饲料生产情况 

项目

仔猪料

母猪料

蛋鸡料

蛋鸭料

肉鸡料

肉鸭料

淡水料

海水料

第一季度同比(%

-22.8

-25.0

2.5

28.5

9.0

11.4

6.5

16.1

第二季度同比(%

-28.4

-25.5

0.5

27.5

9.7

17.6

5.9

1.2

第三季度同比(%

-53.2

-35.7

3.9

21.2

13.7

21.9

-3.3

3.2

 三、各区域发展速度差异明显

      各省饲料总产量情况。第三季度11(区、市)饲料总产量同比增长,其中,甘肃、云南、新疆、宁夏同比增幅较高,分别增长30.6%17.7%15.7%13.5%19省区市同比下降,其中江西、青海、广西降幅较大,依次分别下降-33.8%-33.4%-30.3%,第三季度饲料总产量同比下降,见图2

 

2 2019年第三季度30省(区)饲料总产量同比

猪饲料变化情况。第三季度4(区、市)猪饲料产量同比增长,其中,新疆、云南同比增幅较高,分别增长59.6%26.8%26省区市猪饲料同比下降,其中青海、广西、江西等省猪饲料降幅超过60%;海南、广东、湖南、江苏等省降幅超过50%,见图3

 

3 2019年第三季度30省(区)猪饲料产量同比

第三季度华东和华中地区大幅下降。西北地区由于地缘优势和近年大企业产能布局增加,猪饲料产量同比增长10.4%。华南、华中、华东猪饲料下降较大,分别下降63.0%45.2%40.4%;华北、西南、东北分别下降25.1%23.0%19.3%。从单个地区看,青海、广西、江西等省猪饲料降幅超过60%;海南、广东、湖南、江苏等省降幅超过50%,见图4

四、饲料原料价格以降为主

      第三季度主要饲料原料和饲料添加剂产品中,玉米、棉粕、磷酸氢钙、赖氨酸(70%)同比增长,其他饲料原料及饲料添加剂价格同比皆降。玉米拍卖底价支撑市场价格,以及运费上涨成本增加,推动玉米价格上涨,第三季度玉米均价2.06/公斤,同比增长5.5%。非洲猪瘟疫情影响下国内豆粕需求量下滑,第三季度豆粕价格3.04/公斤,同比下降7.0%。在豆粕比价效应下,菜粕同比下降2.3%;棉籽供应不足导致棉粕价格同比增长0.9%。港口鱼粉库存高企和水产饲料需求不旺,进口鱼粉价格同比下降4.1%。国内氨基酸供应总体充足,赖氨酸、蛋氨酸均价偏弱运行,见表4-5,图5

4 2019年第三季度主要饲料原料采购均价

项目

玉米

豆粕

棉粕

菜粕

麦麸

进口鱼粉

第一季度同比(%

0.3

-5.9

-0.1

-1.5

-9.7

-12.3

第二季度同比(%

2.0

-10.0

-3.6

-4.3

-15.2

-5.0

第三季度同比(%

5.5

-7.0

0.9

-2.3

-10.7

-4.1

5 2019年第三季度主要饲料添加剂采购均价

项目

磷酸氢钙

赖氨酸(98.5%

赖氨酸(70%

蛋氨酸(固体)

蛋氨酸(液体)

第一季度同比(%

0.2

-11.1

-2.8

-8.1

-6.5

第二季度同比(%

1.4

-10.2

-0.4

-6.4

-3.1

第三季度同比(%

1.6

-7.6

0.9

-4.5

-2.0

 

5 2019年第三季度主要饲料原料和饲料添加剂采购价格情况

五、饲料产品价格涨跌互现

      第三季度主要饲料产品价格涨跌互现,配合饲料、浓缩饲料价格有涨有跌、添加剂预混合饲料价格以涨为主。其中,猪、蛋禽、肉禽配合饲料同比分别增长1.6%3.2%1.8%;水产配合饲料同比下降1.9%;猪、肉禽浓缩饲料同比分别下降1.5%0.4%;蛋禽浓缩饲料同比增长2.2%;猪、蛋禽添加剂预混合饲料同比分别增长4.0%4.2%;肉禽添加剂预混合饲料同比持平,见表6-7、图6

6 2019年第三季度配合饲料全国平均价格 

项目

配合饲料

育肥猪

蛋禽

肉禽

鲤鱼成鱼

第一季度同比(%

-0.5

3.8

1.6

-3.7

第二季度同比(%

-0.8

2.1

0.3

-3.1

第三季度同比(%

1.6

3.2

1.8

-1.9

7 2019年第三季度度浓缩饲料和添加剂预混合饲料全国平均价格

项目

浓缩饲料

添加剂预混合饲料

育肥猪

蛋禽

肉禽

4%大猪

5%蛋鸡高峰

5%肉大鸡

第一季度同比(%

-1.7

1.8

-0.1

-0.4

5.5

1.4

第二季度同比(%

-2.8

-0.3

-1.2

2.3

4.3

0.9

第三季度同比(%

-1.5

2.2

-0.4

4.0

4.2

0.0

 

6 2019年第三季度主要饲料产品价格情况

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