2019年上半年母猪料和仔猪料减少近25%,禽料增加超10%

        在7月28日畜牧业畜牧业信息化2019峰会上,农业农村部全国畜牧总站处长/信息中心主任田建华做了题为《2019年上半年全国饲料生产形势分析》的报告,中国饲料行业信息网记者现场整理!

一、我国饲料工业发展概况

  1、近10年饲料总产值、总营收和产量情况:

  2008年饲料总产值4258亿元 ,2018年饲料总产值8872亿元;

  2008年饲料总营收4128亿元 ,2018年饲料总营收8689亿元;

  2018年饲料工业总产值8872亿元,其中,饲料加工品占88.7%,饲料添加剂占10.6%,饲料机械占0.7%;

总产量:2008年1.37亿吨,2018年2.28亿吨,连续4年产量破2亿吨,连续9年居世界第一,约占全球总量的1/4。

2、2018年饲料生产情况:

  2018年配合饲料比重90%,浓缩占7%,添加剂预混料占3%;

  2018年:猪料9720万吨,蛋禽、肉禽、水产、反刍饲料分别为2984万吨、6509万吨、2211万吨、1004万吨,其它饲料360万吨;

  2018年从饲料品种来看,猪料占43%,禽料占42%(蛋禽13%、肉禽29%),水产10%,反刍4%,其它2%。

  近5年(2013-2018年),我国配合饲料、添加剂预混料累计增长分别为21%和2%,浓缩饲料累计下降25%。

  3、从近5年品种结构变化来看:

  2013-2018年,肉禽、水产、反刍累计增长29%、16%、15%;猪料、蛋禽料累计增长13%、3%,意味着肉禽、水产和反刍饲料品种未来的增长潜力和增长速率。

  猪、肉禽饲料相互替代效应较为明显,2008年猪料占比27%,禽料36%,2018年猪料占比41%,禽料占比31%;

  2019年1月猪料占比46%,禽料占比30.9%,6月份猪料占比34.9%,禽料占比35.3%。

  4、从2018年饲料生产区域情况看:

  上千万吨的省份有11个,占全国75%左右,分别是山东、广东、广西、河北、江苏、湖南、辽宁、四川、河南、湖北和江西;

  第二梯队是300万吨以上的,分别是:福建、安徽、吉林、浙江、云南、内蒙古、黑龙江、陕西和重庆;

  饲料产量最少的10省份是:海南、陕西、天津、新疆、北京、贵州、上海、甘肃、宁夏和青海;

配合料前10省:山东、广东、广西、江苏、湖南、河北、湖北、四川、辽宁、江西;

  浓缩料前10省:辽宁、黑龙江、河北、山东、云南、河南、吉林、内蒙古、四川、陕西;

  添加剂预混料前10省:山东、广东、河南、江西、湖南、北京、江苏、四川、河北、天津;

  饲料企业加工数量(有证的):2008年13612家,2018年8012家,企业数量趋于稳定,单场规模快速提高,其中年产10万吨以上的饲料企业从2008年187家增加到2018年656家,他们的饲料产量占全国饲料总产量的近50%。

  二、2019上半年全国饲料生产形势分析

  2019年上半年饲料总产量9306万吨,累计同比下降0.5%;配合饲料8583万吨,累计同比上升0.3%,浓缩料508万吨,累计同比下降9%,添加剂预混料214万吨,累计同比下降7.8%。

  1-6月猪料产量3630万吨,同比下降14%

  1-6月仔猪料产量1259万吨,同比下降24.9%

  1-6月母猪料产量476万吨,同比下降24.7%

  1-6月育肥猪饲料产量1655万吨,同比上升0.9%

  1-6月蛋禽饲料产量1303万吨,同比上升10.5%

  1-6月肉禽饲料产量3279万吨,同比上升12.4%

  1-6月反刍饲料产量442万吨,同比上升4.9%

  小结

  1、上半年全国饲料生产平稳,生产结构适应性调整优化,反映出上半年畜产品生产能力总体稳定,市场供应有保障。

  2、从饲料生产数据看,生猪产能与2018年上半年相比明显下调,主要原因是受非洲猪瘟疫情影响。肉禽、蛋禽和反刍动物养殖发展势头良好。

  3、猪价回升、补栏没有增加,近两个月有下调力度加大的趋势。

  4、蛋禽、肉禽产能显著高于去年同期,养殖积极性高。

  5、受非洲猪瘟影响,养殖端对饲料需求不旺,主要饲料原料玉米豆粕弱价运行。

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